Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
