A mere eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were an indicator or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his second strike to restore his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to address. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – however at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
